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Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings speaks to REALTORS® on Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2019, as part of a State of Housing Forum at the Illinois REALTORS® Public Policy Meetings in East Peoria.
A top state economist told Illinois REALTORS® that median prices for homes in the state have recovered from recession-era lows, but he said the state still lags in creating jobs and continued population outflows are chronic and lingering problems.
Download Dr. Hewings presentation here.
Dr. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director emeritus of the Regional Economic Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois, Champaign, median prices are now six percent above where they were in 2008 when adjusted for inflation. He noted that the increase in median prices over the past several years has been steady, and trends are not marked by dramatic upswings seen right before the recession.
“We have recovered, but it took longer for us to recover,” Hewings told those attending a State of Housing Forum at the Illinois REALTORS® Public Policy Meetings in east Peoria on Wednesday, Jan. 23.
Hewings said that the overall state economy would benefit from additional job creation. While the state has added back jobs lost during the recession, it is not back to employment levels seen in 2000.
Also troubling: Employees leaving the state are being replaced with lower-cost employees, which has a direct impact on the housing market and what these new residents can afford. The wage differential alone could account for a $500 million dollar loss.
“If you have a state that is growing, that provides important momentum for the housing market,” Hewings said.
Illinois has an aging population. According to Hewings, 20 percent of state residents will be over 65 years old by 2030.
What’s 2019 hold for the housing market?
For 2019, Hewings told REALTORS® they can expect to see similar sales levels to 2018 in the state, with perhaps some slight decreases during the spring market. For the nine-county Chicago market, there will be “minimal” change in sales, although there will be a slight uptick in the fall.
Median prices in the state and the Chicago area are expected to increase modestly, as they have for the past three years.
Housing supplies will continue to be under pressure, particularly in price bands that first-time buyers might seek.
